Venezuelan crude oil production is on the verge of sinking to 1 million b/d, and factors playing out this month will determine whether that level is reached early next year or within a few months. The Energy Information Administration projects Venezuela will hit 1 million b/d in second-quarter 2019, said analyst Lejla Villar, who develops projections for the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. “However, I am eagerly awaiting to see what the actual June production number falls to, which may very well accelerate the decline in production through 2019, pushing up this time line,” she said. “If the worst-case scenario for June production comes true, then we could see Venezuela’s production fall to 1 million b/d sooner.”
EIA’s latest STEO report estimated Venezuelan output at 1.43 million b/d for May, down from 1.46 million b/d a month earlier and from 1.98 million b/d in May 2017. The International Energy Agency put May production at 1.36 million b/d and said it could fall to 800,000 b/d or even lower next year.
S&P Global Platts estimated the country’s May output at 1.36 million b/d, down from 1.41 million b/d in April, according to a survey of industry officials, analysts and shipping data.