The 2018 US midterm elections will determine the balance of power over policies affecting the gas and electric sectors across the country, with Republican control hanging in the balance in multiple statewide races as well as in Congress. Support for 100% clean or renewable energy and aversion to fossil fuels coalesced as themes during the primaries for Democratic candidates for governor and some down-state races — much more so than in the 2010 or 2014 elections, said Rob Rains of Washington Analysis.
In addition, environmental groups and clean energy advocates increasingly are using the ballot box through separate initiatives to force the hand of legislatures, he noted. Four top initiatives impacting the gas and power sectors this go-around include a Washington state carbon fee proposal, a Colorado initiative that would curb production in the prolific Denver-Julesburg Basin, and proposed renewable portfolio standards in Nevada and Arizona. Liam Donovan of Bracewell said that at the state level, Republican control of the levers of power has been generally favorable to fossil fuels, but that hold may be at a high-water mark.
“The sheer number of governors’ mansions that are up for grabs this cycle is pretty daunting from a Republican standpoint,” Donovan said, adding multiple state legislatures also are in play. Competitive races include New Mexico, a growing oil and gas producer where the Democrat running for governor has favored tighter methane emissions controls, and Colorado, where the Democrat has backed 100% renewable energy. A Senate flip in Colorado could strengthen the hand of environmentalists. Midwestern states like Ohio and Wisconsin are also vulnerable to losing a Republican lock on gubernatorial and legislative control.
In places like New York, state legislatures could flip, potentially giving life to cleaner energy targets. At the federal level, a Democratic takeover of the House could translate into a message-heavy agenda, in which Democrats focus on the “clean energy” economy and concerns over climate change. Oversight could heat up on the Trump administration’s efforts to roll back air and water quality regulations and replace them with less stringent rules. Administration steps to support coal or nuclear facilities or loosen methane regulation of the oil and gas sector could also face sharp scrutiny.