US oil production is on track to hit 12 million b/d in March and 13 million b/d in October 2020, but the growth rate will slow considerably from recent levels in response to lower forecast WTI prices and ongoing Permian pipeline constraints, the Energy Information Administration said Tuesday. EIA expects the spread between WTI-Cushing and Midland wellhead prices to widen this year, which will slow drilling activity growth in Texas and New Mexico, but that growth will start to accelerate on a monthly basis into 2020 after new pipeline capacity comes online later this year.
US oil production is forecast to average 12.07 million b/d in 2019 and 12.86 million b/d in 2020, EIA said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, which included 2020 projections for the first time. EIA said the US produced 11.8 million b/d in December, a staggering 1.76 million b/d increase from December 2017. US output averaged 10.93 million b/d in 2018.
The US will become a net oil exporter in Q4 2020, EIA said, with total exports of crude and refined products exceeding total imports by 870,000 b/d. “We expect the United States to remain the world’s largest producer,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement.