Political chaos in Venezuela sparked by international support for the leadership of opposition politician Juan Guaidó has called into question more than $25bn worth of investments made by China and Russia, the most prominent backers of Nicolás Maduro’s threatened regime. But while Beijing and Moscow worry about the future of their ally and the fate of their investments in his administration, western investors have cheered the news of a potential leadership change in Caracas that could help the country’s battered economy turn a corner.
The contrasting reactions among investors mirrors a sharp geopolitical divide between governments including the US, Canada and Brazil that have supported Mr Guaidó’s claim to power, and condemnation from Russia, Turkey and others. Mr Maduro has described it as a “coup attempt”. Beijing and Moscow are owed billions of dollars by the crisis-wracked country and have billions more tied up in investments signed with Mr Maduro’s administration.
The key now is how long can Maduro survive and will his support in the military remain in place Paul Greer, portfolio manager for EM debt at Fidelity International Venezuela’s opposition-controlled National Assembly, of which Mr Guaidó is head, has previously warned foreign companies and governments that major investments in the country required their approval, and that those dealing solely with Mr Maduro were not legally enforceable. “An outright default on the debt is a very low-probability event . . . [But] this doesn’t mean that some sort of restructuring of debt is out of the question,” said Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Economies in Transition.
“And even if there is no restructuring, any new government will want to review various deals made by its predecessor. I think this is the most likely outcome, if there is a change in the government. This applies to both Russian and Chinese investment,” Mr Korhonen added. “This would be messy, but this is what Malaysia did regarding deals with China after a change in their government, for example.” While it is legally very difficult for states to renege on deals struck by past administrations, the fate of debt repayments is likely to depend on who ultimately emerges in control of the country’s oil industry, which generates the crude and hard currency used to pay off creditors.
China is Venezuela’s biggest foreign creditor, and has pumped more than $50bn into the country over the past decade, mainly in exchange for oil supplies. About $20bn of that was outstanding in September, according to Chinese media reports. The bulk of China’s loans were extended by the China Development Bank, which has come under criticism in China for the extent of its exposure to Venezuela.
The Export-Import Bank of China, which had a smaller portfolio, has been in contact for some time with the Venezuelan opposition, in the hope of maintaining its rights as a creditor. China’s foreign ministry on Thursday called for “calm” and said Beijing “opposes foreign forces from interfering in Venezuela’s affairs”. Caracas owes Russia more than $3bn, a debt that was restructured in November 2017 to give Mr Maduro more time to pay it back.