Despite a Chinese promise to buy more U.S. farm products, questions remain over how much, the time frame for purchases, and what the U.S. might have to give in return. Beijing is pushing the U.S. to drop plans to impose new 15% tariffs on $156 billion in consumer goods starting Dec. 15 and could use the farm purchases as leverage. Chinese negotiators continue to say purchases must be based on actual demand and at fair-market prices, according to people briefed on the matter. The roughly $50 billion in farm products touted by President Trump is far beyond what China has historically spent and would likely require Beijing to lean heavily on its state-owned firms to accomplish.
“The uncertainty is still there,” says John Frisbie, managing director of international consulting firm Hills & Company and former president of the U.S.-China Business Council. U.S. exports of soybeans, sorghum, pork and other agricultural products to China peaked in 2013 at around $29 billion, falling to $24 billion in 2017 before the trade war started. Those exports plunged to $9.2 billion over the past 12 months, according to Commerce Department data.