Without sanctions relief, Iran will likely attempt to attack Middle East oil targets as a way to push the US to back down from its maximum pressure campaign, analysts said. “Additional aggressive actions in the region are likely in the months ahead,” Paul Sheldon, chief geopolitical advisor with S&P Global Platts Analytics, said in a recent note. Iran may target offshore platforms at Saudi Arabia’s Safaniya field and refineries in the Red Sea port of Yanbu, potentially impacting more than 3.5 million b/d in production, exports and refining capacity, analysts with Rapidan Energy Group said in a new report.
“All else being equal,” said Henry Rome, an Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group, “Iran is incentivized to make riskier decisions, such as conducting additional significant attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure.” Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said that Iran could also target UAE’s electric grid system, as part of a physical or cyberattack. “Because of the US zero export policy, Iran’s strategic patience has come to an end,” Vakhshouri said. “Instead, they’re creating crisis to manage another crisis.”
A potential follow-up to the September 14 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities appears to be a question of when, not if with analysts. The timing seems to depend on US willingness to ease sanctions, something some analysts see as a possibility despite repeated pledges from the Trump administration to exert a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran. Rapidan analysts believe that Iran will likely postpone additional attacks as it waits for Middle East producers to pressure the US towards negotiations and, potentially, an easing of sanctions.