Good policies and responses depend on accurate analysis, sound assessments of the strengths and vulnerabilities of oneself and one’s competitor, and appreciation of structural and other trends that are difficult to shift or circumvent.
The Donald Trump administration has recognized that China poses the most comprehensive and formidable challenge to American interests and values. It is a view increasingly shared by both major political parties, the national security community and policy elites, and the general population.
The United States openly discusses its strengths and weaknesses. The difficulty is in coming up with sensible and effective responses to an opaque competitor or rival that is increasingly adept at controlling grand narratives by trumpeting apparent strengths and concealing weaknesses.
This monograph attempts to argue and/or demonstrate three main points.
First, it looks at why there were credible fears about the stability and viability of the Chinese economy — especially the financial and banking system — leading up to the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–15), and what these were. To understand why Beijing was so concerned, the monograph draws out the serious structural problems that were leading inevitably to a permanent slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of the first three decades of reform.