Fewer than one in four women of child-bearing age in Shanghai is willing to have a second baby, exposing another threat to a Chinese economy that is already growing at its slowest pace in 29 years. On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that China’s economy in 2019 grew at its lowest rate since 1990 andthat the country’s birth rate fell to a record low. While gross domestic product grew 6.1 per cent last year, China’s birth rate dropped to 1.05 per cent. In Shanghai, one of China’s most important cities, the damaging effect of the one-child policy on the world’s second-largest economy is particularly acute.
Weng Wenlei, vice-president of the Shanghai Women’s Federation, a government body, said birth rates in Shanghai had plunged despite efforts to relax China’s population control. She said births in the city had fallen “swiftly” following a brief recovery in 2016, when China began allowing couples to have two children.
“This suggests [the two-child policy] has failed to serve its intended purpose,” said Ms Weng. “Consistently low birth rate will have a negative impact on Shanghai’s social and economic development.” The challenge faced by Shanghai has spread throughout the country – and reflects a trend across the globe. According to the latest World Population Prospects from the UN, 27 countries have fewer people now than in 2010. The UN expects 55 nations, including China, to experience declines between now and 2050.
The demographic shift creates a timebomb for the Chinese economy as the world’s most populous nation faces a shortage of labour to power its assembly lines and care for the old. “Alarge and young labour force is the main engine of economic growth,” said Yi Fuxian, a scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. “That’s what China is starting to lose.”