Multibillion dollar gas export projects that are central to the Trump administration’s push for “energy dominance” are locked in a battle for survival as prices fall and the market faces a supply glut. Liquefied natural gas is a critical outlet for the US’s surfeit of cheap natural gas and the country is on track to pull ahead of Australia and become the world’s biggest exporter by 2024, the International Energy Agency has said.
Companies ranging from Royal Dutch Shell and Total to utilities and smaller independent groups are racing into the LNG export market, but planned capacity exceeds what is likely to be needed. The consultancy McKinsey predicts that only one in 10 proposed export terminals will ever be built.
Last year, global importers received 346m tonnes of LNG – gas condensed to a liquid so it can be loaded on to tankers – according to S&P Global Platts. The volume will rise by 100m tonnes to 446m by 2025, it estimates. Yet in the US alone, 14 unbuilt export terminals with government approval would add 160m tonnes a year of capacity, according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Another 90m tonnes’ worth of projects are still awaiting approval.
Last year, three US projects totalling 30m tonnes in annual capacity received final investment approval from their sponsors. Plunging natural gas prices are also complicating the outlook for companies developing LNG export terminals, as the US benchmark price fell to its lowest level in four years on Monday. Cheaper US gas helps in the intensifying battle for market share, but also makes developers’ projects look less financially viable. Companies are already cutting processing fees, burning cash and letting construction deadlines slip.