Airbus is reviewing its 2020 delivery targets, issued barely three weeks ago, as the global spread of coronavirus in recent days through Europe and into the US pushes the aviation industry into crisis mode. Passenger demand plunged sharply at the weekend, forcing carriers around the world to freeze hiring and slash the number of flights, including on lucrative transatlantic routes. Iata, the airline trade body, will on Thursday significantly increase its estimate of the hit to global sales as a result of the virus. Just 12 days ago it estimated a near-$3obn impact, based largely on the reduction in flights to and from China.
Current data show a 2.8 per cent fall in global aircraft capacity this year, according to aviation data consultancy, Ascend, against Iata’s expectations late last year for growth of 4.7 per cent in 2020. Inthat context Airbus will not be alone in reassessing its guidance for this year. Executives from the aerospace and airline industries said they were monitoring the situation daily. Airbus has not decided to cut its delivery target but one person with knowledge of the situation said “there are several airlines trying to defer deliveries. It is probable that guidance will have to be reassessed before the end of March.” Analysts suggested that the impact of deferrals on Boeing could be mitigated by the year-long grounding of the 737 Max after two fatal crashes. Airbus declined to comment.
Some airlines were also seeking a temporary holiday from lease payments, according to two industry insiders. The review by Airbus and moves this week by carriers from British Airways to Ryanair to sharply cut flights show how quickly the crisis is escalating for the sector.