The tidal waves of unemployment filings across the U.S. showed only the barest signs of abating last week as more than 4 million people applied for benefits, bringing the five-week total during the coronavirus pandemic to 26.5 million.
Most states continued to see initial claims decline on an unadjusted basis, and several states did report decreases in layoffs for the prior week — both signs that job losses are indeed slowing a bit. And government aid to small businesses could spur some employers to restore jobs in coming months. But filings might continue at an extraordinary pace for several more weeks, boosting an unemployment rate that may already be around 20%.
While most of the layoffs in sectors like retail have likely already occurred, there will be “collateral damage” as companies faced with weak demand dismiss workers, said Jay Bryson, acting chief economist at Wells Fargo & Co.
Bryson said he believes the U.S. is past the peak in initial claims “for the foreseeable future,” but “if we open up too soon and this coronavirus comes roaring back then we may in fact see those sorts of numbers again.”