With planes grounded, cars parked, factories shuttered and offices dark, the coronavirus has carved a big hole in the energy economy and redirected its future in ways that could hardly have been imagined four months ago. Even once the world picks up again, the basics of the business will reflect the legacy of the 2020 pandemic.

Coal, already staggering, has taken yet another serious blow. Some analysts wonder whether we have now passed peak oil — whether we will ever again burn 100 million barrels a day. Will investors take a pass on capital-intensive liquefied natural gas terminals and plants? Advocates for renewable sources of energy say they can survive the price challenges of the near future and emerge stronger than ever.

A lot is unknowable right now. A second surge of the coronavirus could flatten the economy for many months to follow. Even now, optimists and pessimists argue over the likely pace of recovery. If President Trump is reelected in November, he can be expected to look kindly on fossil fuels. Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden has promised, if elected, to rejoin the Paris climate accord, set new vehicle fuel economy standards, promote renewables and push for carbon pricing by 2025.
“If you ask a lot of Americans and tell them we’ve dropped our CO2 emissions 11 percent over the last year, they’ll say I’m trapped in my house and I’m unemployed, so if this is what it takes to tackle climate change, no thank you,” said Kate Konschnik, director of the Climate and Energy Program at Duke University’s Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions. “That is a real risk going forward.”