At the start of the global pandemic in March, refineries around the world had to cut back on processing amid collapsing demand. However, there is a structural problem underway in the downstream sector – a wave of overbuilding has led to too much refining capacity, a problem that could linger for years. Refining processing fell by 8 million barrels per day (mb/d) between December 2019 and March 2020, according to the IEA, and data for April is likely far worse. Still, “[a]necdotal evidence from elsewhere does not point to a refining slowdown big enough to match our estimated demand collapse,” the agency wrote in its May Oil Market Report. The agency estimates that second quarter throughput could be down 13.4 mb/d, year-on-year. But in the U.S. at least, refining run rates appear to have bottomed out and have started to rebound. For the week ending on May 22, U.S. […]