Five days after the demise of Isaias, there’s a new tropical wave that bears watching swirling across the Atlantic. It’s the latest sign of activity in an ocean basin that has already featured a relentless spate of early-forming storms which have claimed numerous records. Now, another system could be forming one to two weeks ahead of a possible tropical cyclone barrage. On Monday, a tropical wave was about 600 miles west-southwest of Cabo Verde as it churned across the open Atlantic. While its window to develop may begin to close by late in the workweek, modestly conducive conditions will be at its disposal through at least Wednesday. The National Hurricane Center assigns it 60 percent odds of becoming a tropical depression or storm. If this system earns a name, “Josephine” is next.

The earliest J storm on record was Jose, which formed Aug. 22, 2005. Katrina formed two days later.

If this system does not develop, in one to two weeks a much more favorable environment for robust tropical development looks likely to take place.

The forecast for Invest 95L

Invest 95L as viewed by the GOES-East weather satellite in infrared on Monday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)
Invest 95L as viewed by the GOES-East weather satellite in infrared on Monday morning. (Tropical Tidbits)

The tropical wave trekking westward Monday appeared on satellite with mixed signals regarding its growth prospects. While it did have a reasonably well-defined circular spin, the system — dubbed Invest 95L — lacked heavy convection, or shower and thunderstorm activity, toward its center. That’s paramount to its growth, and until more towering clouds brew near the middle, Invest 95L is unlikely to strengthen much.

The system is moving into an area characterized by limited wind shear, though, which could improve its prospects for development. Wind shear, or a change in wind speed and/or direction with height, can play tug of war and tear apart nascent cyclones as they develop vertically.

Most computer models indicate that 95L will probably skirt the northern Leeward Islands late in the week. It could clip Puerto Rico with some heavy downpours before recurving north over the open Atlantic and potentially influencing Bermuda’s weather.