Friday, August 14th, 2020
Another week and another snoozer for oil prices. WTI and Brent remain in a narrow range, although their foothold in the $40s feels more solid than it has in the past. EIA data this week showed another decent stock decline, along with an uptick in gasoline demand.
IEA: Oil demand takes a hit. The International Energy Agency expects crude oil demand this year to be 8.1 million bpd lower than it was in 2019, a downward demand forecast revision of 140,000 bpd, the authority said in its latest Oil Market Report. The agency cited the very weak aviation industry as a main reason why demand could remain depressed.
Inventories to draw down at “record speed.” In the fourth quarter, oil inventories could draw down at “record speed,” according to SEB. “[T]he IEA yesterday (13 August) projected a call-on-OPEC in Q4 2020 of 29.5m bl/day. If this turns out to be correct and OPEC and OPEC+ both stick to their agreed caps, then global inventories will decline by between 4m bl/day and 5.2m bl/day in Q4 2020 – an inventory draw of between 370m bl and 480m barrels in a single quarter, which cannot be far from a historical record,” SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop said in a statement.