Global automobile sales plunged dramatically in the first two quarters of this year as the coronavirus pandemic kept buyers out of showrooms. The market, which peaked several years ago, dropped to levels not seen since the financial crisis more than a decade ago. Within this global picture are the distinct markets of internal combustion engines and electric vehicle drivetrains. And even within EVs there are three regional markets, each on its own distinct track.
First, the total global numbers. Quarterly vehicle sales peaked at the end of 2016 at 22.7 million; last quarter, sales were 14.4 million, not quite two-thirds of what they were at their high.
A Precipitous Drop
Global vehicle sales, quarterly
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
On a year-on-year basis, sales dropped further—and faster—this year than during the global financial crisis. Sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 were down 21.1% from a year earlier; in the first quarter of 2020, they were down 25.3%, and were lower still in the second quarter.
Further Than in ’08
Year-on-year change in quarterly vehicle sales
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence
Then there’s the electric vehicle market—or rather, the three major EV markets: China, Europe, and North America. Combined, they’re still only 4.8% of total vehicle sales. But after such a steep drop, their relative performance stands out in the global market. While EV sales also dropped overall in the first and second quarters, they dropped less—just 15%—which qualifies as outperforming.
In North America, EV sales fell more than internal combustion vehicle sales; in China, where internal combustion sales actually rose in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, they fell much more.
And then there’s Europe—or at least its 16 major markets, not including Moldova, Lichtenstein, etc. It had both the largest fall in internal combustion sales (down almost 56% year on year) and a similarly humongous increase in EV sales (up more than 45%).