Iraq Falters in Push to Meet OPEC+ Quota as Crude Exports Rise

Iraq is exporting more crude so far in September than it shipped last month, a sign that the country is falling further behind in efforts to comply with its OPEC+ production limit. A long-time laggard, Iraq already owes its partners in the producers’ group compensation cuts to make up for pumping too much in past months. With these extra reductions that Iraq promised for August and September, its production goal would be about 3.4 million barrels a day.

In the first 15 days of September, Iraqi exports alone reached 3.26 million barrels a day, 8% higher than last month’s daily average, according to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Adding as much as 650,000 barrels a day of crude to account for Iraqi refinery use would put OPEC’s second-biggest producer well over its production limit.

Reversing the Trend

September crude exports show Iraq’s trouble meeting OPEC+ obligations

Bloomberg September data is for first 15 days of the month

Iraq pumped 3.72 million barrels a day in August, according to a Bloomberg survey. Iraq’s oil ministry and its state oil marketer didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Crude prices have slipped since the end of August on concern that coronavirus flare-ups will slow a recovery in demand and that OPEC+ compliance may be slipping. Brent crude was trading at $41.65 a barrel at 7:05 a.m. in London on Thursday.

OPEC was already facing compliance questions concerning the United Arab Emirates, which pumped at least 100,000 barrels a day more than it should have in August. Other estimates pegged the UAE’s over-production at more than that, though the Gulf nation has signaled that it will make up for pumping too much by chopping shipments in October and November.

Read how efforts by OPEC+ to save the oil market are faltering as demand’s recovery stalls

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