No major oil, gas or coal company is on track to align their business with the Paris climate goal of limiting the global temperature rise to well below 2°C by 2050, new research shows, despite net-zero emissions pledges. A partnership between London School of Economics academics and investors that manage $21tn in funds, called the Transition Pathway Initiative, assessed 125 oil and gas producers, coal miners and electricity groups on their preparedness for a lower-carbon economy.
They were measured on “carbon performance”, which factors in the carbon intensity of the products they produce and sell, emissions reduction targets and how they would fare under three models: should governments meet existing national emissions pledges, a scenario in which temperatures rise by 2C; and one where they rise by less than 2°C. Of the 59 major oil, gas, and coal players assessed, only seven are on track to align with the emissions pledges governments made as part of the 2015 Paris Agreement – Royal Dutch Shell, Spain’s Repsol, France’s Total, Eni of Italy, Equinor of Norway as well as miners Glencore and Anglo American.
But even compliance with existing national pledges would leave the world on track for 3.2°C of warming, according to the UNEP. Others say it could be even higher. “Those pledges are widely regarded as insufficient to avert dangerous climate change,” TPI said on Wednesday. Only three oil and gas companies – Shell, Total and Eni – are getting closer to the 2C scenario although their emissions reduction targets and low-carbon investment plans are still not quite enough to bring them into line with that benchmark, let alone lower, TPI said.
Fossil fuel companies have been under pressure from investors and environmental activists to take greater accountability for their role in enabling climate change. Several European oil and gas majors, including Shell, BP and Repsol, have in recent months announced net-zero emissions pledges. In the new report, BP was not cited as a leader in action on climate change, despite its announcement in August of ambitious plans to cut oil and gas production by 40 percent over the next decade.
The TPI said the company’s new emissions targets for its operations and production covered products made using its own and third-party crude but not those it trades, which made up more than half of everything it sold last year.