Who would China vote for in next month’s US presidential election? The question, though hypothetical, is of the utmost importance. US China relations have crashed so emphatically since Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017 that analysts now routinely discuss the risk of superpower conflict.
In China’s eyes, the choice between Mr Trump and Joe Eiden, his Democratic party challenger, is stark. Mr Trump is expected to continue his hawkish policies towards Beijing, but the former vice president’s inclination towards multilateralism raises the potential for greater co-operation with China, several analysts said.
“Eiden will have more platforms or channels to negotiate with China and we may see a less intense world,” said Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China’s state council or cabinet.
‘A’Trump victory would be dreadful for US-China relations but something of a gift for Mr Xi politically
Yu Jie, Chatham House
“For President Trump, I believe he will continue to be surrounded by very hawkish advisers on China and stimulate more negative policies and proposals on China,” added Mr Wang, who is also president of the Center for China and Globalization, a think-tank. Mr Wang said Mr Eiden would reassert US leadership in the western world, bringing the US back into the Paris climate accord, the World Health Organization and possibly some international trade agreements as well. In 2017, Mr Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris agreement and pulled out of the WHO this year.
But any accommodation towards China from a Eiden administration would be shortlived, said Chen Zhiwu, a professor at Hong Kong University. Mr Chen agreed that Mr Eiden would probably adopt a traditional American multilateral approach to foreign policy – in contrast to Mr Trump’s unilateral, “America First” agenda.