China’s top policy makers meet next week to hammer out the country’s future economic blueprint, offering clues on how the leadership plans to pivot the world’s second-largest economy to be more self-sufficient. The four-day meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee will take place behind closed doors from Monday in Beijing. Known as the plenum, the discussion this year will focus on the framework for China’s 14th five-year plan that runs from 2021 through 2025, as well as the vision and targets for the next 15 years.
Dual Circulation
In the coming five years, policies are expected to be formulated around the idea of “dual circulation” raised by President Xi Jinping, in which China is seeking to create a more self-reliant domestic economy supplemented by external trade. Domestically, the strategy would require China reshaping its production to satisfy local demand and bolster consumption.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
“An emphasis on encouraging domestic circulation would not signal that China is closing its doors on the world. We expect the plan to encourage two-way trade and promote services trade.”
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Chang Shu, chief Asia economist
On the external side, China is likely to continue opening up its markets, including easing restrictions that bar foreign investors from certain industries — known as the negative list — and lowering tariffs and non-tariff barriers on imports.
Growth Target
Analysts are watching closely whether officials will set a specific target for gross domestic product growth in the five-year plan or give a broad description of the goal. The government didn’t set an annual growth target this year amid the uncertainty unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic. The previous five-year plan set an average growth target of above 6.5%.
