I don’t know who’ll prevail in the U.S. election. But one thing we can probably all agree on is that incumbent leader President Donald Trump has had an extraordinary impact on the global oil market. From crippling the oil exports of Iran and Venezuela to taking credit for brokering the biggest-ever voluntary production cuts, Trump’s fingerprints are all over. How might that change after the November vote?

Things will carry on pretty much as they are if Trump retains his place in the White House. I couldn’t find any new initiatives on his campaign website, while the specific achievements listed on his energy and climate page consist mostly of reversing his predecessor’s actions.

The headline accomplishment of opening more leases and expanding offshore oil and gas drilling may not be all it seems. Fewer than 1% of the Gulf of Mexico blocks offered for lease attracted bids in the six completed sales so far during Trump’s presidency, according to documents posted on the Department of Interior’s website. Results of a seventh sale are due to be announced next month.

If Joe Biden wins, things will certainly change for domestic energy companies and policy. The Democratic candidate’s climate plan includes the following:

  • Requiring aggressive methane pollution limits for new and existing oil and gas operations
  • Permanently protecting the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and other areas
  • Banning new oil and gas permitting on public lands and waters
  • Modifying royalties to account for climate costs

Whoever wins, they’ll face a landscape where both domestic and global reserves of oil and gas are the highest they’ve ever been. At a time when most forecasters see a peak in oil use by 2040, known reserves are sufficient to maintain current production levels for another 50 years.

Neither the U.S. nor the world at large has a shortage of already-discovered oil under the ground. But both are clearly facing a shortage of pristine wilderness.

No Shortage

Global reserves of oil and gas have never been bigger

Source: BP

A shift in White House policy toward tackling global warming may impact oil and gas jobs. But a green energy program could utilize the skills of laid-off oilfield workers — whether that’s supporting offshore wind farms or plugging the 3 million or so abandoned U.S. oil and gas wells that are leaking copious amounts of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere.

The international oil industry

The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran has halved the country’s oil production and choked off most of its exports. Its shipments of crude and refined products are now limited to China, Syria and Venezuela, with small volumes of oil perhaps smuggled elsewhere. Sanctions on Venezuela have helped to drive production in what was Latin America’s biggest oil producer down to its lowest level in nearly 100 years, according to figures published by DeGolyer and MacNaughton.