Wall Street’s confidence that the U.S. election would spark a clean-energy revolution dimmed after Republicans appeared set to retain control of the Senate, casting doubts over whether Joe Biden could pursue his climate agenda even if he wins the White House. As a picture slowly emerged Wednesday of Democrats positioned to potentially take the White House but not Congress, renewables stocks including JinkoSolar Holding Co. and First Solar Inc. slumped. Oil and gas companies rallied, led by Concho Resources Inc. and ConocoPhillips.

Biden, who led President Donald Trump in electoral votes Wednesday afternoon, has proposed sweeping plans to move away from fossil fuels, promote electric vehicles and eliminate greenhouse gases from the electricity grid by 2035. But with Republicans poised to hold onto their slim majority in the Senate, those ambitions may run aground amid gridlock.

“There was some anticipation of a Democratic sweep and the possibility of major climate reform,” Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov said in an interview. But without allies in the Senate “he’ll have to rely on executive action, tinkering around the edges, rather than anything game-changing or transformative.”

A Bloomberg Intelligence index of solar companies fell sharply Wednesday
  • Concho rose 4.1%, and ConocoPhillips climbed 3.7%.
  • Marathon Oil Corp. rose 3.1%
  • JinkoSolar plunged 12%, and First Solar fell 8.6%. Morgan Stanley cut its rating on First Solar to the equivalent of sell.
  • Clean energy giant NextEra Energy Inc., the world’s biggest producer of wind and solar electricity, slipped 3.6%.
  • In Europe, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, the world’s top wind-turbine producer, slumped the most in three years before paring the losses.

“Perhaps the biggest conclusion to be drawn at this stage is that there is only a small likelihood that existing oil & gas tax incentives will be removed in the U.S. — even if Biden emerges as the winner,” Artem Abramov, head of shale research at Rystad Energy, said in a note to clients. Still, Biden would be able to ban new fracking on federal lands via an executive order, which would hit producers in New Mexico and elsewhere.