European power demand is likely to hold up in the second round of national lockdown restrictions, with fluctuations most likely driven by changes in the weather. Traders and analysts expect normal consumption this time around as home heating during the chilly season replaces commercial demand. Last week electricity consumption in France, Germany and the U.K. was close to business-as-usual levels for the time of year, according to BloombergNEF data. By contrast, power demand had dropped 16% in the first seven days of the springtime lockdown.
Power Demand Yet to Drop in New Lockdowns
A 7-day rolling average compared to a business as usual scenario shows how power demand has not fallen the same as in the spring
BloombergNEF
The Covid-19 limits are lighter than those from earlier in the year “with an explicit drive to preserve economic activity, particularly at the more energy-intensive industrial end of the spectrum,” said Glenn Rickson, head of European power analysis at S&P Global Platts.
Higher levels of working from home will offset some of the losses from shop and hospitality closures, “but also increase the temperature sensitivity of overall gas and power demand,” he said.