Top Oil Trader Vitol Says Europe Lockdowns Mere ‘Speed Bump’

The world’s largest independent oil trader doubts that new coronavirus lockdowns in Europe will lead to another significant drop in crude prices following last week’s rout. “This is a speed bump,” Mike Muller, the head of Asia for Vitol Group, said in an interview Sunday with Dubai-based consultant Gulf Intelligence. “We are not going to see a violent reaction in price on Monday.”

Benchmark Brent crude fell 10% in the five days through Friday to $37.46 a barrel, its lowest since May, as daily Covid-19 cases hit a record in the U.S. and nations including France and Germany announced new lockdowns. The U.K. followed suit on Saturday.

While energy demand in Europe is being hit, global oil inventories fell at a rate of around 2 million barrels a day in September and October and that trend will probably continue, according to Muller. “We are seeing demand destruction unexpectedly from these lockdown measures — hundreds of thousands of barrels-per-day-equivalent for Europe alone,” he said. “But the bigger, overriding picture is still that the world is in a stock-drawing mode.”

Last year, daily oil consumption in Europe totaled 14.9 million barrels, according to data from BP Plc. Demand was 1.5 million barrels a day in France and 2.3 million in Germany. OPEC+ — an alliance of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers such as Russia — has helped bolster prices since it agreed to output cuts in April. The group was meant to ease those curbs by 2 million barrels a day in January, but it may be forced into a delay given oil’s renewed weakness.

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