Electric vehicles may cost about the same as their gas-guzzling brethren in just three or four years — and only get cheaper from there, according to a new report from BloombergNEF. Electric cars and buses, which are key to fighting global warming, have long been saddled with bigger up-front costs than those burning gasoline or diesel, due to the cost of batteries. But researchers say that price premium will disappear once battery packs reach $100 per kilowatt-hour — a tipping point BNEF expects to occur in 2023, according to its 2020 Battery Price Survey.
Bargain Batteries
Lithium-ion battery prices are declining
Source: BloombergNEF survey
Note: Average prices are volume weighted
Battery costs have plunged nearly 90% in the last decade, from $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010 to $137 this year. Packs built for cars — as opposed to home solar arrays or pieces of the power grid — cost even less. They now average $126 per kilowatt-hour.
BNEF’s annual survey also found examples of batteries for electric buses in China selling below $100 per kilowatt-hour, said lead author James Frith. China’s average pack price for electric buses is only slightly higher, at $105.
BNEF forecasts prices dropping to $58 per kilowatt-hour by 2030. One possible way that price could be achieved is the widespread production of solid-state batteries, which BNEF estimates could be made for 40% the cost of current lithium-ion batteries.