In the American West, the drought that paved the way for 2020’s hellscape of wildfires is poised to be even worse this year. Fanning the flames: La Niña. The weather pattern has reached the peak of its power, wreaking havoc on a world already reeling from an unprecedented string of extreme weather brought on by climate change. Characterized by a cooling of the equatorial Pacific, La Niña triggers an atmospheric reaction that roils commodities markets across the globe—parching cropland in some areas while bringing a flood of rain to others.

In the U.S. West, the biggest threat is drought. Even as long-awaited rain falls this week, water scarcity plagues 78% of 11 western states, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. January should be California’s wettest month, bringing an end to fire season with frequent rain along the coast and valleys and snow in the Sierra Nevada Mountains. But with La Niña steering the winter away from the state, fire season now seems to be limitless. A record 4.2 million acres burned in the state in 2020, and the threat still hasn’t abated. At least a dozen blazes erupted this month as dry gusts rattled the southern half of the state.