A booming rally in oil markets has pushed crude prices to their highest levels since near the start of the coronavirus pandemic, powered by production curbs and recovering demand. Brent-crude futures, the benchmark in energy markets, have risen more than 50% since the end of October and are approaching $60 a barrel for the first time since Covid-19 began to erode oil demand in early 2020. Futures for West Texas Intermediate—or WTI, the main grade of U.S. crude—last week surpassed $55 a barrel for the first time in over a year.
Oil is rising against a mixed economic backdrop, with data published Friday suggesting that the labor market faces a long road to recovery. But the stock market continues to power higher, in part because investors expect a new dose of fiscal stimulus and vaccines to goose growth. American drivers are already paying more thanks to the rally in crude. Nationally, gasoline prices have climbed to an average of $2.46 a gallon from $2.12 at the start of November, according to GasBuddy, which tracks retail fuel prices.
Gasoline prices are likely to keep climbing. Crude’s recent advance will take two to four weeks to translate into higher prices at the pump, said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis, though he doesn’t expect to see gasoline hit $3 a gallon on average any time soon. Behind oil’s rally: Huge stockpiles that accumulated in the early stages of the pandemic have winnowed down faster than many people expected. Traders say that could pave the way for further price gains if demand, which has already recovered in China and India, picks up in developed economies.
The fall in inventories is largely down to efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, to restrain production. Since agreeing to the cuts at the peak of the crisis in energy markets in April, producers have held back a cumulative 2.1 billion barrels of oil, OPEC said last week.