Scientists on Wednesday reported another reason the world should sharply rein in global warming: doing so would likely cut in half the current projected amount of sea level rise from the melting of ice this century. In a study that averaged results of hundreds of computer simulations from research teams around the world, the scientists said that limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could reduce sea level rise from melting glaciers and the vast Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets from about 10 inches to about five by 2100.
That level of warming, equivalent to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, is the stricter of two targets set by the 2015 Paris agreement to combat climate change.
But the world has already warmed about 1.1 degrees Celsius since 1900, and is not on course to meet the 1.5 degree target, or even the higher Paris goal of 2 degrees Celsius.
Together, the two studies are the latest best forecasts related to one of the most concerning impacts of climate change: rising oceans that will cause more flooding, force costly overhauls to coastal infrastructure and potentially create millions of climate refugees.
“You can conclude from both studies that mitigation and emissions reductions will be important with regard to how much sea level rises,” said Peter U. Clark, a geologist at Oregon State University who researches sea level but was not involved in either study.
Modeling how land ice will behave as the temperatures rise is difficult, especially for the vast, thick Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. These studies show that the models are improving, Dr. Clark said, although uncertainties remain.