Saturday’s tremendous coastal storm pushed a band of heavy snow into southern New England, burying cities under a snowpack up to two feet deep. These near-record snowfall totals continue an astonishing run of historic storms to impact the Northeast in recent years, probably attributed, in part, to anthropogenic climate change.

“Extreme snowstorms, even in the face of longer term declines in winter snow, are entirely consistent with the effects of global warming,” Justin Mankin, a professor at Dartmouth College who studies climate change and variability, said in a statement. “Storms like this are emblematic of the fact that we need to do a better job of managing their risks now to make us more resilient for the future.”
In Boston, where records extend back to 1936, Saturday’s storm tied the all-time calendar day snowfall record, with 23.6 inches accumulating. In recent decades, such extreme snowfall has been unusually common: 15 of the 30 largest single-day snowfalls have occurred since 2000.

Islip, home to the National Weather Service that covers New York City and surrounding counties, was shy of its record for most snow in a single day by only 0.2 inches. At the Islip station, which has been collecting data since 1963, four of the five largest 24-hour snow events happened since 2010; the fifth was in 2006.

Several major cities in the Northeast, all with record-keeping that extends back many decades, have seen top or near-top single-day snowfall in recent years:

  • Providence, R.I., set its record Saturday
  • Albany, N.Y., saw its third-largest storm in 2020, within 3 inches of the record
  • Binghamton, N.Y., set its record in 2017
  • New York City’s Central Park set its record in 2016
  • Baltimore set its record in 2016
  • Newark saw its second-largest storm in 2016, within 2 inches of the record
  • Virginia’s Dulles Airport saw its second-largest storm in 2016, within 0.2 inches of its record
  • Portland, Maine, saw its second-largest storm in 2015, within 0.1 inches of its record
  • Bridgeport, Conn., set its record in 2013
  • Hartford, Conn., set its record in 2011
  • Philadelphia saw its second-largest storm in 2009, within 4 inches of the record

Single-day records are not the only objective way to quantify the incredible winter weather activity of recent years. A metric known as the Northeast Snow Impact Scale (NESIS), which calculates the population-weighted snowfall footprints of winter storms, can be used to compare the social strain induced by Northeast winters. Analysis of NESIS data shows the 2008-2018 period saw more than three times as many winter storms as any other decade since at least 1958-1968.

(Cohen, J. et al, 2020)

Scientists say the recent decadal surge of Northeast winter storms is probably tied to climate change.

One study found a strong relationship between episodes of Arctic warming and severe winter weather events in the Northeast. Warming episodes in the Arctic can destabilize the polar vortex, or a ring of fast winds encircling the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that keeps the cold Arctic air at bay. When the vortex is pinched, stretched or displaced, it can allow the frigid Arctic air to spill south into the United States.

A weakened polar vortex can bring cold blasts from the Arctic to lower latitudes. (NOAA)

“When Arctic temperatures are cold, snowfall is less likely [in the Northeast],” wrote Judah Cohen, author of the study and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in an email. “The probability of snowfall increases as the Arctic warms and spikes higher when the Arctic is warmest.”