For parched areas of the western United States, spring is unlikely to offer relief. Rather, historic drought conditions will probably worsen, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its annual spring outlook.

The agency also warned that significant flooding could occur in parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

The outlook, issued every March, comes as western water resources are strained amid the worst multi-decade drought in at least 1,200 years.

The drought

Much of the country west of the Mississippi River experienced a winter far drier than normal. The Great Plains have seen almost no rain in the past 90 days, and January and February were the driest such months in Californian history. Drought, as delineated by the United States Drought Monitor, extends from the California coast to southeast Louisiana and from the Canadian border to the Rio Grande.

This map shows drought conditions as of March 15. Areas that are abnormally dry are yellow, while areas under some degree of drought are orange (moderate to severe drought) and red (extreme to exceptional drought). A vast majority of the United States, from the Pacific Ocean to the Mississippi River, is under some degree of drought. (U.S. Drought Monitor)

“With nearly 60% of the continental U.S. experiencing minor to exceptional drought conditions, this is the largest drought coverage we’ve seen in the U.S. since 2013,” Jon Gottschalck, of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release.

Against this backdrop, NOAA’s spring outlook cites the likelihood for a drier-than-average spring across much of the West, leading to probable intensification and expansion of drought throughout the region. According to the agency’s forecast, there is a better-than-even chance of drought remaining entrenched across the West and even expanding into some areas of Texas and Arizona that aren’t experiencing a moisture deficit.
Spring forecast until June 2022 (NOAA)

The Southwest, including California, is experiencing the worst multi-decade drought in more than 1,000 years. A string of lackluster winters for precipitation have deepened a regional hydrological crisis that has induced record-smashing heat, devastating wildfire seasons and agricultural woes.

Though an easing of drought conditions once seemed probable due to a very wet December, a dramatic pattern change rendered January and February, often the two wettest months in California, almost completely dry. As it appears increasingly likely that drought will again worsen into 2022, the populous region home to a sprawling farming industry is in a precarious situation.

Attempting to balance competing water demands beneath a sky that will not rain, federal officials are unable to allocate water to many farmers in California’s central valley. The drought, which has cost the region many billions of dollars, will probably continue to become even more expensive.

Impacts will also extend well beyond agriculture. Lake Powell, a massive reservoir on the Colorado River in the interior West, fell to its lowest level on record early this week, the Associated Press reported. A hydroelectric plant on the reservoir feeds electricity to millions of people, and just 35 feet separate Powell’s current height from one that would no longer support power generation.

Continuing drought will probably mean wildfires again threaten vast tracts of the West into 2022’s warm season, taking advantage of fuels rendered extremely dry by the lack of rain. Already, conditions extremely favorable for wildfire spread allowed dozens of blazes to erupt across Texas on Thursday, and the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that hundreds of counties West of the Mississippi will see above-average significant wildfire potential through at least June.

Wildland fire outlook in April and June (National Interagency Fire Center)
Flood risk

As drought suffocates the West, a very different threat may unfold only a couple states eastward, according to the NOAA forecast: major flooding that could overwhelm the Red River, which flows along the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota.

Above-average precipitation over the past six months have primed the Red River basin for flooding, which is expected to commence as snow melts and springtime storminess begins. Moderate flooding is also possible farther south and east, across much of Indiana and portions of Missouri, Kansas and Illinois.

Flood outlook from March to May 2022 (NOAA)

The latest spring flood forecast is similar to that of 2020, which also highlighted the Red River as an area of major spring flood risk. That year, the river exceeded flood stage by over 10 feet in Fargo, N.D.