The US economy will tip into a recession next year, according to nearly 70 per cent of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times.
The latest survey, conducted in partnership with the Initiative on Global Markets at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business, suggests mounting headwinds for the world’s largest economy after one of the most rapid rebounds in history, as the Federal Reserve ramps up efforts to contain the highest inflation in about 40 years.
The US central bank has already embarked on what will be one of the fastest tightening cycles in decades. Since March it has raised its benchmark policy rate by 0.75 percentage points from near-zero levels. The Federal Open Market Committee gathers once again on Tuesday for a two-day policy meeting, at which officials are expected to implement the first backto-back half-point rate rise since 1994 and signal the continuation of that pace until at least September.
Almost 40 per cent of the 49 respondents project that the National Bureau of Economic Research — the arbiter of when recessions begin and end — will declare one in the first or second quarter of 2023. A third believe that call will be delayed until the second half of next year.
Most economists surveyed predict that the next recession will begin in 2023
In which range is the most likely starting quarter of the next recession (as determined by the NBER business cycle dating committee)?