Even before the start of the war in Ukraine, an international alliance to rally the world against a Russian invasion came together so quickly that President Biden later marveled at the “purpose and unity found in months that we’d once taken years to accomplish.”
Now, with the conflict in its fourth month, U.S. officials are facing the disappointing reality that the powerful coalition of nations — stretching from North America across Europe and into East Asia — may not be enough to break the looming stalemate in Ukraine.
With growing urgency, the Biden administration is trying to coax or cajole countries that have declared themselves neutral in the conflict — including India, Brazil, Israel and the Gulf Arab states — to join the campaign of economic sanctions, military support and diplomatic pressure to further isolate Russia and bring a decisive end to the war. So far, few if any of them have been willing, despite their partnerships with Washington on other major security matters.
“I have a country to manage,” he said.
U.S. officials acknowledge the difficulties in trying to convince countries that they can balance their own interests with the American and European drive to isolate Russia.
“One of the biggest problems that we are facing today is the fence-sitter problem,” Samantha Power, the head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, said on Tuesday after giving a speech about the administration’s efforts to reinforce free speech, fair elections and other democratic systems against authoritarian leaders worldwide.
She said she was hopeful that Russian atrocities committed in Ukraine would persuade neutral states to join the coalition against Moscow, “given our collective interest in rules of the road that all of us would wish to see observed, and none of us would wish to see used against our citizens.”
Russia and its partners, notably China, have denounced the U.S. government’s efforts to expand the coalition, which in addition to European nations also includes Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
In Beijing, Zhao Lijian, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said on Monday that the United States “forced countries to take sides in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and wantonly threatened to impose unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.” He added: “Isn’t this coercive diplomacy?”
Russia’s currency, the ruble, cratered shortly after Mr. Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine in February. But it has since bounced back as Russia continues earning hard currency from exporting energy and other goods to many nations, including China, India, Brazil, Venezuela and Thailand.
For some countries, the decision of whether to align with the United States can have life-or-death consequences. Washington has warned drought-stricken African nations not to buy grain that Russia stole from Ukraine at a time when food prices are rising and possibly millions of people are starving.
“Key strategic middle powers such as India, Brazil and South Africa are consequently treading a very sharp line in an attempt to preserve their strategic autonomy and cannot be expected to simply sidle up to the U.S.,” said Michael John Williams, a professor of international relations at Syracuse University and a former adviser to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
“Washington believes this war will be won in the West,” Mr. Williams said, “but the Kremlin believes it will be won in the East and the Global South.”
In a vote in March on a United Nations resolution condemning Russia’s aggressions against Ukraine, 35 countries abstained, mostly from the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. That alarmed American officials and their allies, who nonetheless noted that 141 of 193 states censured Russia. Only five states — including Russia — voted against the measure.
Brazil voted to condemn Russia, and Mr. Bolsonaro has pressed for negotiations to end the war. But his country continues to import fertilizer from Russia and Belarus, an ally of Moscow
Indian officials say their Russian imports are modest. During a visit to Washington in April, India’s foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, dismissed questions on the subject, saying that “probably our total purchases for the month would be less than what Europe does in an afternoon.”
“So you might want to think about that,” he said.
But Europe is now slashing its energy imports, in a partial embargo of Russian oil, while India is reportedly in talks with Moscow to further increase its already growing purchases of crude oil.
South Africa’s ties to Russia go back to the Cold War, when the Soviet Union supported the anti-apartheid movement that transformed the nation’s internal power dynamics.
Trade between the two countries is modest, but South Africa, like many other nations, has long been suspicious of Western colonialism and the United States as an unrivaled superpower. President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa has accused NATO of provoking Russia into war and has called for renewed diplomatic talks. In a phone call in April, Mr. Biden urged him to accept “a clear, unified international response to Russian aggression in Ukraine,” according to a White House statement.
Brazil, India and South Africa — along with Russia and China — are members of a group of nations that account for one-third of the global economy. At an online meeting of the group’s foreign ministers last month, Moscow offered to set up oil and gas refineries with its fellow partners. The group also discussed expanding its membership to other countries.