Rising energy prices and boxing Russian crude oil out of the global market risks a global recession, Bank of America’s head of global commodities and derivatives research Francisco Blanch warned in a recent research note. “Can the global economy continue to expand with tightening oil supplies? Our estimates suggest that the world can handle a total disruption of just about 2mn b/d of Russian oil without risking a global recession,” the note cautioned. In 2023, BoA sees oil demand approaching pre-Covid levels—but only if Russia’s crude oil and condensate production stays at 10 million bpd and OPEC+’s crude oil output increases. “With our $120/bbl Brent target now insight, we believe that a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports could trigger a full-blown 1980s style oil crisis and push Brent well past $150/bbl,” Blanch added. Blanch stressed that while recession risks were elevated, it was not the base case. Blanch’s […]