As Russia pushes to find new buyers for its oil to skirt ever tougher Western sanctions, it is cutting into the market share of two of its allies — Iran and Venezuela — and setting off a price war that could hurt them all.
The competition for sales to Asia has already forced Venezuela and Iran to sharply discount their crude to try to hang onto the few available outlets for their own sanctioned exports, according to oil analysts and traders.
And although both Iran and Venezuela profess publicly to remain close to Russia, experts expect that if the oil battle intensifies it will raise tensions with the Kremlin even as its leader, Vladimir V. Putin, works to shore up his alliances. On Tuesday, his government announced he would make a rare trip outside the country next week to Iran’s capital, Tehran.
“The war shows that countries have interests, not enemies or friends,” said Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan oil politics expert at Rice University.
The spike in energy prices has given fossil fuels a prominence they last enjoyed in the 1970s, amplifying the effect of the Kremlin’s policies far beyond the battlefields at a time when many world leaders had hoped to begin phasing out oil to tame climate change.
Daniel Yergin, a prominent energy expert and the author of “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations,” said the energy crisis was unraveling the last vestiges of the post-Cold War global economy, heralding a new era of great power competition in an increasingly fragmented world.
“Oil and natural gas,” he said, “have become central to the outcome of this new struggle.”
The resurgence of oil and gas — and the fact that so much of global supply comes from Russia — has been Mr. Putin’s strongest weapon against the West, giving him a geopolitical clout far beyond his country’s position as the world’s 11th largest economy.
It didn’t look that way earlier in the war, when the United States began to nudge allies to punish Russia, leading to the promise of an oil embargo by Europe. The hope was that cutting Moscow from that market would help starve it of the revenue to wage its war.
Instead, the price of oil shot up, reaching levels not seen since 2008. Russia’s oil revenues increased and have continued to feed its war machine.