Images of drunken conscripts brawling and staggering as they depart for the Russian army suggest Vladimir Putin could have difficulty in creating effective fighting forces for his war in Ukraine through his “partial” mobilization.
Ukrainian and western officials and analysts dismiss Russia’s short-term ability to mold often reluctant recruits — whose previous military experience is brief, decades-old or non-existent — into a new offensive capability.
But Russia could send its new conscripts after a cursory few weeks of training to bolster defensive positions in southern and eastern Ukraine.
The strategy would, in turn, require Ukraine to use more manpower and weaponry in its efforts to retake territory and drag out the conflict.
“Of course, it is bad news for us,” said a member of Ukraine’s territorial defense forces. “Even if they [Russian conscripts] don’t have motivation, they’ll have a gun.”
Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu has said Moscow is seeking to mobilise 300,000 men out of an eligible total of 25mn but analysts say the broad criteria in the order mean the eventual number could be much higher.
These servicemen would give a significant boost to the Russian troops remaining on the front line. Moscow deployed 180,000 men at the start of its military campaign in February and is estimated to have since suffered about 80,000 deaths and injuries, according to the US. Ukraine, which has declared full mobilization, has a total number of troops between 700,000 and 1 mn.
Kyiv expects the new Russian servicemen to appear on the front lines within six weeks.
“At the first stage, probably within a month-and-a-half, the enemy plans to complete the full complement of its units and military units involved in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine,” said Brigadier General Oleksiy Gromov, a member of Ukraine’s general staff. Russia was also likely to send conscripts to its border to free up regular army troops previously assigned there, he said.
In a second stage, Russia would seek to create new “combined military formations” accompanied by artillery and missile units, he predicted, adding however that a lack of military specialists meant this process would take “a