The media is replete with stories of low oil prices killing the shale revolution. This is not going to happen, and here’s why: the world remains dependent on US shale oil production growth. We at Princeton Energy estimate that oil demand should grow at around 1.6 million b/d per year at $80/b, on a Brent basis, with that demand improvement becoming evident from the second half of 2015. Now, where would supply growth come from to meet that demand? It could come from Brazil and Iraq for starters. Brazil’s offshore program is finally finding its legs, and production has been increasing at a pace of perhaps 200,000 b/d per year. Iraq, assuming it does not implode into civil war, could provide as much with some luck. And perhaps another 200,000 b/d could come from various other sources, for example, from the US Gulf of Mexico in 2015. And that’s […]