- Crude oil prices stabilised following early-February gains, with ICE Brent rising more than NYMEX WTI which was weighed down by swelling US stockpiles. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at around $58/bbl – up nearly 30% from a six-year low in January. WTI was at around $48/bbl.
- Having bottomed-out in 2Q14, global oil demand growth has since steadily risen, with year-on-year gains estimated at around 0.9 mb/d for 4Q14 and 1.0 mb/d for 1Q15. The forecast of demand growth for 2015 as a whole has been raised by 75 kb/d to 1.0 mb/d, bringing global demand to an average 93.5 mb/d.
- Global supply rose by 1.3 mb/d year-on-year to an estimated 94 mb/d in February, led by a 1.4 mb/d gain in non-OPEC. Declines in the US rig count have yet to dent North American output growth. Final December and preliminary 1Q15 data show higher-than-expected US crude supply, raising the 2015 North American outlook.
- OPEC crude output edged down by 90 kb/d in February to 30.22 mb/d, as losses in Libya and Iraq offset higher supply from Saudi Arabia, Iran and Angola. A slightly higher demand forecast has raised the 2H15 ‘call’ on OPEC crude to 30.3 mb/d, above the group’s official 30 mb/d target.
- Global crude refinery throughputs estimates have been raised to 77.8 mb/d for 1Q15 and 77.3 mb/d for 2Q15, on sustained high margins and a slightly more robust oil demand outlook. Annual gains are forecast around 1.0 mb/d in 1H15, down from a sharp 2.2 mb/d in 4Q14, and in line with projected oil product demand growth.
- OECD commercial stocks rose by a weaker-than-average 23.1 mb in January, to 2 733 mb, trimming their surplus to average levels to 60.3 mb. US crude stocks rose to a record 72 mb surplus. Preliminary data show stocks drew by a weak 8.8 mb in February as extended US crude builds offset steep weather-related product draws.
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