Who is the top forecaster in the oil market? The surprising answer is that nobody knows because the accuracy of predictions is never properly tracked and measured after they are made. Banks, consultancies, government agencies and even journalists routinely issue predictions about what will happen to oil supply, demand and prices in future. Forecasts about the trajectory of prices over the next few months and years drive decisions affecting billions of dollars of investment. Oil companies rely on them to decide whether to drill more wells, develop new fields and hedge their future production. Consumers rely on them in deciding whether to buy a small fuel-efficient car or a gas-guzzler. Governments need them to produce revenue estimates and budgets. Expectations about oil prices are among the […]