As El Nino continues to moderate weather conditions across much of the US, the effects could reduce coal burn as low as 636 million st in 2016 with Central Appalachia producers bearing the brunt of the cutbacks, a Morgan Stanley analyst said Monday. Higher cost mines in Northern Appalachia, the Illinois and Powder River basins also would feel the impact of the cuts, which would need to take place to rebalance the market if gas prices stayed below $2/MMBtu, said Evan Kurtz, a New York City-based equity analyst. NYMEX January gas futures settled at $1.894/MMBtu Monday. “Obviously the vast majority of CAPP thermal mines can’t compete with gas at this level,” Kurtz said. “They will hang on as long as they can, but most of CAPP thermal mines will go away.” Morgan Stanley, in its official October forecast, projected the industry would burn roughly 768 million st of coal […]