Every year I have a bet with a good friend on where the Brent oil price will be in December the following year. Last year I estimated $56.50, my friend $99, so this year I am a clear winner, even though I’m out by about 49%. Brent is trading at $38 as I write. I can extract little satisfaction from this since I got “close” for the wrong reasons. Let’s cut to the quick. My forecast for Brent at around this time next year in my BAU (business as usual) scenario is $37. This is grim reading for all those involved in and around the oil industry. Worse still, I think there is high probability that we see sub-$20 oil before the first quarter is out. But this is great news for consumers. The reason is gross over-supply sustained throughout 2016, helped by Iran coming back to full market […]