Oil’s volatile start to 2016 has continued with prices falling back below $40 as the second quarter begins. The following could determine crude’s next move. Less than two weeks until a key meeting of Opec members and other large producers, the outcome is very much in doubt. Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia said last week that theOpec kingpin will agree to a hold output only if joined by Iran, something that seems unlikely given Tehran has vowed to lift exports as it emerges from years of sanctions. Before those comments Opec delegates indicated Saudi Arabia would be prepared to allow Iran some leeway despite the fierce rivalry between the two Middle Eastern powers. While such views supersede those of the oil ministry, it is possible his message falls short of an edict, and may be partially aimed at a domestic audience used to tough talk against Iran. Equally the comments may be a pre-meeting bargaining chip to extract more concessions from Iran such as capping how much the country raises output before joining the freeze.