The current oil-price rally is over. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low. The oil-price rally that began in February is over. Prices rose from $26 per barrel to $51 by early June and are now below $42 (Figure 1). If they fall through $40, the next likely support level is at $36 per barrel. (Click to enlarge) Figure 1. The current oil-price rally is over. Source: EIA, Wall Street Journal and Labyrinth Consulting Services, Inc. Capital Drives The Oil Market and Prices Most people think that fundamentals–supply and demand–drive the oil market but capital drives the market and oil prices. More than anything, rig count reflects capital flow. Many believe that oil prices drive the rig count but it is really capital flow that drives […]