Summary Oil demand and supply are both in the process of balancing and peaking. Oil supply will fall before oil demand, creating a period of significantly higher priced oil. OPEC and shale will be the main beneficiaries of higher oil prices. According to the EIA, global oil supply and demand are roughly in balance right now. The World Oil Outlook, put out by OPEC, is a fascinating long read that projects oil demand will reach 99.2mbd by 2021 and 109.4mbd by 2040. Its analysis takes into account demographics, economic growth, technology advances, and other factors. Among its assumptions is that “non-conventional powertrain passenger vehicles are expected to represent 22% of the car fleet by 2040, up from only 3% in 2014. Most of the growth will come from passenger BEVs, which are anticipated to increase to 141 million in 2040.” While I believe that EVs and hybrids will represent […]