If you think one lockdown is painful enough, imagine a second. It is too soon to gauge the lasting impact of putting the US economy into a deep freeze for weeks. But it will be very hard for consumers and businesses to shake off a lingering sense of risk aversion. The shock of the second wave of sheltering-in-place would be orders of magnitude worse. Twice bitten, multiply shy. Given the choice, no self-preserving leader would take risks with the specter of another outbreak later this year. Yet the temptation to go for a V-shaped recovery before the November election looks too great for Donald Trump. Publicly discussing prospects of a second outbreak is now banned among US government scientists. On Wednesday, Mr Trump effectively gagged Robert Redfield, head of the Centers for Disease Control, after he warned of a second – and worse – round of coronavirus infections this coming winter. What Mr Redfield had meant to say was that every American should get their regular flu injections, the White House explained.
Several states, including Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee are already relaxing stay-at-home orders. Tattoo parlors, cinema complexes and bowling alleys are apparently now safe to visit in Georgia. In reality, such venues are ideal for super-spreaders. In the trade-off between growth and health, reopening the economy too soon achieves neither. Scientists warn such measures will sharply increase the chances of a second wave of coronavirus. That, in turn, would trigger another instant depression. Economists point out that the US is not even in a recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Yet JPMorgan forecasts that the US economy will shrink by 40 percent in the second quarter. American unemployment is likely to hit 20 percent.