Virus Revives Worst-Case Scenarios for U.S.-China Relationship

On Jan. 15, it seemed like the U.S. and China had avoided a quick descent into a new Cold War. In Washington, U.S. President Donald Trump declared that “our relationship with China is the best it’s ever been” while signing a preliminary trade deal that “unifies the countries.” The pact between Trump and China’s Xi Jinping raised hopes that the world’s predominant superpower could peacefully resolve differences with a rising China.

That same day, health officials in the central Chinese city of Wuhan acknowledged that they couldn’t rule out the human-to-human transmission of mysterious new pneumonia that had already sickened 41 people. A man who had visited Wuhan also arrived home in Washington state carrying the deadly pathogen — the first confirmed U.S. case of the disease that would become known as Covid-19.Four months later, the virus has prompted the worst global health crisis in at least a century, killing more than 300,000 people and plunging the global economy into a deep recession. The pandemic has also revived all the worst-case scenarios about U.S.-China ties, edging them closer to confrontation than at any point since the two sides established relations four decades ago.

From supply chains and visas to cyberspace and Taiwan, the world’s two largest economies are escalating disputes across several fronts that never really fell silent. Trump is even expressing frustration with the trade pact, one of few commitments preventing the rhetorical fights from spilling into the real world. On Thursday, Trump said he doesn’t want to speak with Xi and the U.S. would “save $500 billion” if it cut off ties with China.

In response, China’s foreign ministry urged the U.S. to drop “the Cold War mentality” and cooperate in the fight against the virus. “The stable development of relations between China and the United States is in the fundamental interests of the people of the two countries and is also conducive to world peace and stability,” ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian told a regular news briefing in Beijing.

The feud will likely get noisier before the U.S. election in November: Trump is increasingly blaming China for the virus turmoil as it undermines his chances at victory, while presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, Congress and several states also join in. Meanwhile, Xi’s government has unleashed nationalist forces against the U.S. as slowing exports and rising joblessness push the country toward its worst downturn in generations.

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