We are now at a crossroads in Libya where a military solution is temporarily off the table, as factions and their external allies wrangle over oil revenues–the distribution of which will now decide when the pumps are turned back on and force majeure lifted. For the first time in seven years, there is a light at the end of the Libyan tunnel, but with open and backdoor talks being brokered by various external allies, sorting rumor from fact and wishful thinking is tricky. What we know for sure is this: It’s all about leverage, and the Turkish-backed GNA doesn’t have nearly enough to call the shots on this one despite recent territorial gains in and around Tripoli against General Haftar. Now, with Egypt stepping up to the plate and drawing a red line in Sirte, the strategic gateway to the Libyan oil facilities, the potential for oil revenue negotiations […]