Whenever fighting has erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territories claimed by both neighbors, demands from Moscow have ultimately forced the two post-Soviet states to the negotiating table. This time, however, Russia’s calls to stop the escalating violence in Nagorno Karabakh that began on Sunday have so far fallen on deaf ears, thanks in part to the rise of Turkey as a regional power that has altered the delicate balance in the sensitive Caucasus Mountains region.
Ankara’s support for its neighbor Azerbaijan and saber-rattling rhetoric has fanned the most violent flare-up for several years in a decades-long conflict and created a significant headache for Russian president Vladimir Putin by challenging Moscow’s regional hegemony. While Russia has traditionally sought to remain neutral in the territorial dispute – Moscow considers both former Soviet states as allies – it has a military base in Armenia and a defense pact with the country that contains a mutual assistance clause in case of attack from external countries.
At the same time, Turkey’s full-blooded support for Azerbaijan in the conflict has emboldened Baku, analysts say, and chipped away at Moscow’s influence over the Azeri leadership. That has added another flashpoint to Moscow and Ankara’s list of conflicts where the two regional powers and their strongman leaders – who have sought to strike an uneasy alliance over trade, energy and mutual distrust of the west – find themselves at odds, alongside Syria and Libya.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin have never been true allies, and never will’© EPA
“Turk ey’s growing involvement in the South Caucasus through Azerbai jan is a fact which Russia does not relish. Russian and Turkish interests clash here more than anywhere,” said Dmitri Trenin, head of the Carnegie Moscow Center think-tank, adding: “Putin and Erdogan have never been true allies, and never will.” He added: “What they manage to do instead is to capitalize on their parallel interests and to play down differences and divisions so that these do not lead to direct conflict between Russia and Turkey.” Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, has adopted an increasingly assertiveforeign policy in recent years, using overseas military deployments