There are many moving parts to the grain deal Russia and Ukraine reached, which officials didn’t think was even possible until last week, not least because the war is continuing and trust between the parties is extremely low.
Here’s what to know about the grain problem, and how it might now be addressed.
Why was Ukrainian grain stuck inside the country?
After Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, it deployed warships along Ukraine’s Black Sea coast. Ukraine mined those waters to deter a Russian naval attack. That meant that the ports used to export Ukrainian grain were blocked for commercial shipping. Russia also pilfered grain stocks, mined grain fields so that they couldn’t be harvested and destroyed grain storage facilities.
A joint command center with officials from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations will be set up immediately in Istanbul to monitor every movement of the flotillas.
The agreement specifies the inspection team’s primary responsibility is to check for “unauthorized cargoes and personnel on board vessels inbound to or outbound from the Ukrainian ports.” A key Russian demand was that the returning ships are not carrying weapons to Ukraine.
The parties have agreed that the vessels and the port facilities used for their operations will be safeguarded from hostilities.
What are the risks?
No broad cease-fire has been negotiated, so the ships will be traveling through a war zone. Attacks near the ships or at the ports they use could unravel the agreement. Another risk would be a breach of trust or disagreement between inspectors and joint-command officials.
The role of the United Nations and Turkey is to mediate such disagreements on the spot, and to monitor and enforce the agreement. The agreement is valid for 120 days, and the U.N. hopes that it will be renewed.
Officials say the agreement has the potential to increase the flow of wheat to Somalia within weeks, averting a full-blown famine, and should lead to a gradual decline in global grain prices. But considering the agreement’s fragility, grain markets are unlikely to return to normal immediately.
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