Looking over the numbers, and knowing the way the North American oil market works, it’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that current US crude oil production cannot be sustained unless the Department of Commerce begins to permit exports beyond Canada. The surge in US crude oil production, led by Texas and North Dakota, which account for more than 45% of all domestic production, can only be sustained if there are new processing facilities — refining capacity or possibly condensate splitters to take care of the higher-gravity oil — a change in US refiners’ crude slate, or the final option, exports. There is some new refining and splitting capacity being added which will consume about 750,000 b/d of light sweet crudes and condensates, according to industry estimates. (OPEC & IEA estimates are at 500,00 b/d but US sources say this excludes condensate splitting capacity, so if you add condensate splitting […]