Author: ASPO-USA

The fall in oil prices heralds a momentous shift in world energy markets from the BRIC era of emerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India and China) to the Shale Era. An oil tanker sits anchored off the Fos-Lavera oil hub near Marseille, France, Oct. 15. © Reuters Yet there are two continuing puzzles about the price collapse. First, the 50% fall in prices has not been the global economic stimulus that might have been expected. So far, at least, it has not been a Fourth Arrow for the world economy. Is this telling us something about deeper troubles ahead for the world economy? The second puzzle concerns geopolitics. The oil market is usually very sensitive to geopolitics. Geopolitical risk is high now: The Middle East is in crisis. The West’s relations with Russia are the worst they have been since the end of the Cold War; the stand-off in Syria […]

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Source: Hess Corp. It was roughly one year ago when reports surfaced that Occidental Petroleum Corporation ( NYSE:OXY ) was seeking a buyer for its Bakken Shale assets. At that time, Wall Street pegged the value of those assets at as much as $3 billion. However, one year later, those same assets are reportedly being unloaded for a mere $500 million. What’s important to understand about that price is the fact that it is not the result of a fire sale by a company in desperate need for cash — Occidental is doing just fine — nor is it due to a huge disconnect in the M&A market. Instead, the low reported sales price boils down to two things: poor timing and a less-than-ideal location. Once upon a time When Occidental Petroleum first put its North Dakota oil assets on the market, it was right around what, in hindsight, […]

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BP’s chief economist says that burning existing fossil fuel reserves would not be consistent with limiting global warming to 2C, as governments have pledged to do. Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images The world’s oil resources are unlikely to ever be fully exploited, BP has admitted, due to international concern about climate change. The statement, by the group’s chief economist, is the clearest acknowledgement yet by a major fossil fuel company that some coal, oil and gas will have to remain in the ground if dangerous global warming is to be avoided. “Oil is not likely to be exhausted,” said Spencer Dale in a speech in London . Dale, who chief economist at the Bank of England until 2014, said: “What has changed in recent years is the growing recognition [of] concerns about carbon emissions and climate change.” Scientists have warned that most existing fossil fuel reserves must stay in the […]

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2015 Could Be The Year Of Peak Oil … I am now more convinced than ever that 2015 will see the peak in world crude oil production. I have very closely studied the charts of every producing nation and my prognosis is based on that study. I see many nations in steep decline and most every other nation peaking now, or in the last couple of years, or very near their peak today. These include the world’s three largest producers, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the USA. Oil Mountain (Image: D. Bacon/Shutterstock/Economist) China Peak Oil: 2015 Is the Year Domestic production looks set to peak, with some profound implications for the world market. Intense focus on the North American shale boom, Saudi Arabia, and ISIS obscures an important emerging energy trend: China’s oil production is peaking. This has profound implications for the world oil market, because China is not just […]

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Summary Global annual population growth peaked in 1988 and is decelerating. Global annual population growth is estimated to be back to 1950 levels by 2050 but the bulk of "growth" will be among 65+ year olds living longer…not greater births. Substituting lower interest rates and encouraging more debt for declining population growth (consumption) was and is a tragic error by our central bankers. The idea that global population growth will perpetually drive increasing demand for food, natural resources, real estate, consumer goods, and global trade is a common theme. This idea of ever greater demand drives most investors thinking and actions. The premise the world currently operates under is that demand (consumption) will grow driven by population increases coupled with wage increases and be magnified by access to credit. The resultant growth will allow rapidly growing debt to be serviced / paid by even more rapidly growing global trade. […]

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Shell announced this week that it was abandoning efforts to develop oil from the Alaska’s outer continental shelf (OCS). The company had drilled a well in the Burger prospect in the Chukchi Sea this past summer, but the results were disappointing. Although the company found hydrocarbons, the flows were insufficient to warrant further exploration. With that, Shell decided to suspend activities in Alaskan waters indefinitely. Shell had such high hopes. If all went well, it would have produced an average of 650,000 barrels of oil for 35 years from the OCS. From 2025 until 2060, the OCS would power Alaska’s economy and contribute up to 10 per cent of domestic US oil production. The project, which we estimated would cost more than US$300 billion in total, would have represented the largest infrastructure project in the United States in the next 15 years. There was no more visionary initiative anywhere […]

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Many environmentalists hope, and oil producers worry, that we’re entering a post-car era spearheaded by tech-savvy, bike-path-loving, urban-dwelling, Uber-using millennials—leaving behind generations of automobile owners whose thirst for gasoline seemed limitless. “Millennials have been reluctant to buy items such as cars,” a Goldman Sachs GS 1.30 % analysis concludes, turning to “what’s being called a ‘sharing economy.’ ” David Metz, former chief scientist at England’s Department of Transport, claims that the growth of Uber and its competitors guarantees a decline in automobile and fuel use. Thomas Frey, the DaVinci Institute senior futurist, says that “wealthy economies have already hit peak car.” The idea may seem plausible given recent history: tepid new-car sales, fewer miles driven per capita and shrinking gasoline use. In reality, it’s poppycock: The car habits of young adults ages 18-33 simply reflected a lack of jobs and money. Now J.D. Power finds that millennials are the […]

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Living Renewable Energy By Robert and Sonia Vogl President and Vice President Illinois Renewable Energy Association We were both surprised and pleased that Chris Schneider of Honda Motorwerks in LaCrosse returned to being an important presence at the annual Renewable Energy and Sustainability Fair. He is a long-standing advocate of hybrid electric vehicles and always provides an up to date presentation on progress in providing cleaner transportation options. His presence supplements the fine presentations by Tom Brunka on electric vehicle conversions, Allen Penticoff on sustainable cars of the future and Jeff Green on amazing batteries in our future. Schneider acknowledged that low gasoline prices are negatively impacting the sales of hybrid and electric vehicles but believes as many others do that low gasoline prices may not last very much longer. He did point out the existence of impressive savings on used electric vehicles. Brunka took advantage of the low […]

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Summary Expect higher gasoline and oil prices in 200 days. US Peak Oil from Fracking was in July 2015. US Oil Production down 474,000 barrels per day since July 2015. Watch EIA TWIP Report to understand oil inventories. “Glut” of oil to deplete in 200 days. Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices to ratchet much higher. Those two forces can be easily tracked by watching EIA’s “ This Week in Petroleum ” or TWIP. The two forces are: US crude oil domestic production. US crude oil stocks The current TWIP reports a 474,000 barrel per day decrease in US oil production since July 2015. (click to enlarge) seeking alpha 2 Comments on "$4 Gasoline By May 2016" makati1 on Wed, 30th Sep 2015 10:31 pm “Two forces, acting in opposite directions, will soon align to cause gasoline and oil prices […]

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